The short version: City of Greater Geelong is a high-value, well-established house market on Victoria's Geelong region — home to roughly 271,057 adults across 159,810 dwellings, with a forecast population of 306,814 by 2026. The local economy generated $21.5B in Gross Regional Product in 2024/25, with unemployment sitting at 4.5%. Vacancy is just 1.74%, and with stock on market (0.28%) and inventory (2.19 months) both sitting comfortably under the ~3-month balanced-market mark, that constrained supply is what's been driving price growth of +9.1% and rent growth of +4.2% over the past year.
Grew from $10.1B (2001) to $21.5B (2025) — a brief plateau in 2023/24, then a fresh rise into 2025. NIEIR data via economy.id.
Population (ERP + forecast)
306,8142026
271,000 (2021) → 306,814 (2026) → ~442,000 forecast (2046) — steady, uninterrupted growth right through the forecast period. Axis zoomed to 250K–450K to show the trend clearly.
Unemployment rate
4.5%2026
Greater Geelong
Victoria
Peaked ~8.4% in 2014/15, fell to a low of ~2.5% in 2022/23, now converging with the Victorian average around 4.5%.
Industry sector of employment, 2021 — top 6 by share
Health Care & Social Assistance17.4%
Construction11.2%
Retail Trade10.6%
Education & Training9.8%
Public Administration & Safety6.3%
Manufacturing6.1%
Construction, Retail Trade and Education & Training all employ a notably higher share locally than Regional Victoria overall — Manufacturing employs a slightly lower share. ABS Census 2021 via profile.id.
All four charts sourced directly from City of Greater Geelong's public economy.id / forecast.id / profile.id profiles (informed decisions).
Market & insurance risk
Higher = more favourable
EDI
66
Variety of industries & employment sources locally
MADI
98
Low reliance on volatile resource sectors
Bushfire Safety
100
Based on vegetation, topography & history
Flood Safety
95
Based on topography, watercourses & history
Demand profile — bedrooms × property type
3 Bed
4 Bed
5 Bed
2 Bed
1 Bed
Three- and four-bedroom houses dominate buyer & renter search activity in this market
Market trends
Historical data only
Headline values: $915K to buy, $524pw to rent, a 2.97% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved +88.33% and rents +56.25% — the widening gap is why yield has been compressing.
1 Month
0.49%
1 Quarter
2.01%
1 Year
9.06%
3 Year
0.09%
5 Year
19.99%
7 Year
45.77%
10 Year
88.33%
Buy
$915K↑ +9.06%
Rent
$524pw↑ +4.17%
Yield
2.97%↓ -4.47%
Growth Rate Cycle
GRC Index: 199
GRC Index
199
+ve minus -ve growth months
GRC Minima
-4.26%
Depth of worst slowdown
GPD
-13.9%
Growth vs area's own long-run trend
GSP
-21.8%
Growth vs surrounding LGA/state
Supply
~379 new listings/month
New stock on market
0.28%
Inventory
2.19 mo
Building approvals
1.78%· 2374
Hold period
8.40 yrs
Demand
Typical sale takes 33 days
Days on market
33 days
Vacancy rate
1.74%
Buy & rent search index
4.0 Buy|5.0 Rent
Clearance rate
70.53%
Fundamentals
Underlying market quality
A sales ratio of 5.1% and rental ratio of 3%, with local schools ranked 57/100 and $3,066 of infrastructure spend per capita — the underlying quality signals behind the headline numbers above.
Affordability index — years of income to buy
44.5 yrs
Market stability
Sales ratio
5.1%
Annual sales, % of dwellings
Rental ratio
3%
Annual rentals, % of dwellings
School rank
57/100
Catchment school quality
RO ratio
28%
Owner-occupier vs investor
Infra. spending
$3,066
Active infrastructure pipeline, per capita
IRSAD
8
Socio-economic advantage index
Public housing
3.3%
Share of dwellings
Unit-to-house ratio
12.00%
Market depth
UH value ratio
78%
Typical unit vs house values
Major infrastructure projects
City of Greater Geelong, VHBA & Development Victoria
Barwon Women's and Children's
New tower and refurbishment of the Bellerine Centre within the University Hospital Geelong precinct — a new children's inpatient unit, neonatal and parent care unit, specialist clinics and four new operating theatres. The largest health infrastructure project in Barwon Health's history.
Value: $500M+Expected completion: 2029
Under construction
Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre
Regional Victoria's largest convention and events centre, on the Western Beach waterfront — a 1,000-seat theatre, exhibition and conference facilities, and Gheringhap Plaza. Delivered as a Public Private Partnership through the Geelong City Deal.
Value: $449.1MOpened: June 2026
Completed
Geelong Line Upgrade — Waurn Ponds Duplication
Track duplication and station upgrades around Waurn Ponds, preserving the corridor for a future Armstrong Creek link. The full South Geelong-to-Waurn Ponds duplication and Fyans Street/Surf Coast Highway level crossing removals remain a separate, larger project still awaiting a funding decision.
Value: $160MType: Rail
Underway
Central Geelong redevelopment pipeline
Multiple projects across the Central Geelong Framework Plan area, overseen by the Geelong Authority — public facilities, waterfront works and precinct upgrades, with construction activity and approved works spanning the CBD.
Value: $799.5M under constructionApproved pipeline: $799.3M
Underway
Armstrong Creek Rail Spur
Proposed 2km track extension from Marshall Station into the Armstrong Creek town centre, identified by Council as one of four priority rail projects ahead of the 2026 state election. Estimated to cut travel time to central Geelong to around 11 minutes — funding not yet secured.
Value: Not yet fundedType: Rail
Planning
Sourced from City of Greater Geelong's 2026/27 Budget, the Victorian Health Building Authority, Development Victoria and the Geelong Authority's 10 Year Report. Confirm current status before relying on this for a purchase decision.
What these numbers mean
Plain-English definitions
Scores & risk
EDI
Economic Diversity Index — how many different industries employ people locally. Higher = less exposed to a single employer or sector downturn.
MADI
Mining & Agriculture Dominance Index — how reliant the local economy is on volatile resource sectors. Higher = less reliant, more stable.
Bushfire / Flood Safety
A safety score from 0–100 based on vegetation, topography, watercourses and historical incidents. Higher = safer.
IRSAD
ABS Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage — a decile (1–10) measuring the area's socio-economic profile. Higher = more advantaged.
Market trends
Typical price / Yield
HtAG's own price methodology (an alternative to raw median price) and the resulting gross rental yield.
Growth Rate Cycle (GRC)
Tracks the speed of price growth, not price itself. A rising curve means growth is accelerating; a falling curve means it's cooling.
GRC Index
The area's current position in its growth cycle, calculated as the number of months with positive growth minus the number of months with negative growth.
GRC Minima
The lowest cyclical growth-rate point the area has recorded — the depth of its worst slowdown.
GPD (Growth Pattern Deviation)
How current growth compares with the area's own long-run trend, across 1-year, 3-year and 5-year windows.
GSP (Growth Spillover Potential)
How the area's growth compares with the surrounding council area or state/territory, across 1-year, 3-year and 5-year windows.
Supply & demand
Stock on Market (SoM)
New listings as a % of total dwellings. Below ~0.4% is considered low supply — a tight market.
Inventory
Months it would take to sell all current stock at the recent sales rate. Under ~2.1 months = low supply.
Building Approvals
New dwelling approvals as a % of total dwellings — a forward indicator of future supply.
Hold Period
The average length of time owners keep a property before selling. Over ~10.4 years = tightly held.
Days on Market (DOM)
The typical time a property takes to sell. Under ~35 days = high demand.
Vacancy Rate
The share of rental dwellings sitting vacant for 21+ days. Under ~1% = very high tenant demand.
Search Index (Buy & Rent)
Online search interest relative to the state average, on a scale where 5 = average.
Clearance Rate
The share of properties that sell (at auction or otherwise) rather than being withdrawn. Above ~70% = high demand.
Fundamentals & projections
Affordability Index
Years of median household income required to buy the typical property outright.
Sales / Rental Ratio
Annual sales (or rentals) as a % of total dwellings — a measure of how much of the suburb turns over each year.
School Rank
Catchment school quality, scored out of 100 based on academic performance data.
RO Ratio
The balance of owner-occupiers to investors in the suburb.
Infra. Spending
Non-residential building approval value per adult resident — a proxy for how much infrastructure investment is flowing into the area.
Unit-to-House / UH Value Ratio
How much of the housing stock is units vs houses, and how unit prices compare to house prices in the same area.
Definitions simplified for client readability — see HtAG's own data dictionary for full technical methodology.
Important: Market data sourced from HtAG Analytics. Population, employment and economic data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and .id (informed decisions). Infrastructure data from public council and state government registers.
Figures shown are indicative and general in nature only, and do not constitute personal financial, investment, or legal advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. You should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Mindset Property Pty Ltd, ACN 664 657 247.
